Mississippi River Watershed – Flood Outlook Statement – March 4, 2026

From the Mississippi Valley Conservation Authority

A Flood Outlook Statement is to provide early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snowmelt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.  

Weather forecast: A significant warming is underway, with air temperatures expected to rise consistently above zero with limited overnight cooling, potentially triggering an early spring freshet. Successive days with daytime highs above zero are possible starting today through mid next week, peaking above 10°C on March 10 before returning to below zero temperatures on March 12. Widespread rainfall is also expected during this period, with forecasts estimating amounts between 20 to 30 mm.

Watershed conditions: Water levels and flows are currently below normal due to a lack of mid-winter snowmelt and rainfall events. The snowpack, however, is currently well above average at about 150% of normal for snow water equivalent and depth.

This coming rise in temperatures and rainfall is expected to cause an early start to the spring freshet period. Snowmelt due to warmer temperatures, combined with anticipated rainfall may result in increased water levels and flows in water bodies. The degree of increase will depend on actual precipitation and temperatures. Unstable ice conditions may also be present, which can lead to ice jams.

Risks: Rivers and streams may experience higher water levels, fast flowing water and slippery or unstable banks. Lake and river ice may weaken, mobilize, and elevate the risk for localized ice jam formation.

Actions: Residents are reminded to exercise extreme caution near all water bodies due to high flows and slippery conditions. Parents are encouraged to remind children about these dangers and provide appropriate supervision.

Residents in flood prone areas are advised to maintain close watch on water levels and flows and take the necessary precautions to protect their property by:

• Ensuring sump pumps are clear, in good working condition and have a backwater valve.
• Having a portable generator and backup pump available.
• Ensuring downspouts are clear and the outlet is at least 3 metres from any structure.
• Removing or securing items that might float away if flows increase.
• Removing valuable items from basements or lower floors that could be subject to flooding.
• Keeping emergency phone numbers handy.
• Familiarizing yourself with your municipality’s emergency preparedness plan.

Duration: This message is in effect until March 13, 2026 or until an update has been issued.

For more information: Daily water levels and flows are available on the MVCA website at www.mvc.on.ca/water-levels.

For more information, contact: MVCA Water Management, 613-253-0006 ext. 248, water-management@mvc.on.ca