Flood Outlook Statement – Mississippi River Watershed – March 30, 2026

From the Mississippi Valley Conservation Authority

A Flood Outlook Statement is to provide early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snowmelt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.

This is an update to the Watershed Conditions Statement for the Mississippi River watershed issued March 17, 2026.

Weather forecast: 

A series of low‑pressure systems will bring mild temperatures and unsettled weather this week. Air temperatures are expected to remain consistently above zero with limited overnight cooling. Successive days with daytime highs above zero are forecast across the watersheds, starting today and throughout the week, with some days peaking at or above 10°C. Widespread rainfall is also expected during this period, with forecasts estimating between 20 to 50 mm.

Watershed conditions: 

A brief warming period in early March initiated freshet conditions across the watershed. Subsequent cooler temperatures allowed water levels and flows to recede to near-normal levels. Current snowpack conditions are within the typical range for this time of year, with notable snow water equivalent remaining in the upper watershed.

Forecasted warmer temperatures and rainfall are expected to accelerate the melt of remaining snowpack. This combination may trigger a second freshet peak, with snowmelt and precipitation contributing to rising water levels and flows in local water bodies. The magnitude of these increases will depend on actual temperature and precipitation amounts. Unstable ice conditions are likely present across the watershed, increasing the potential for ice jams during breakup.

Risks:

Rivers and streams may experience higher water levels, fast flowing water and slippery or unstable banks. Lake and river ice may weaken, mobilize, and elevate the risk for localized ice jam formation.

Residents are reminded to exercise extreme caution near all water bodies due to high flows and slippery conditions. Parents are encouraged to remind children about these dangers and provide appropriate supervision.

Residents in flood prone areas are advised to maintain close watch on water levels and flows and take the necessary precautions to protect their property by:

• Ensuring sump pumps are clear, in good working condition and have a backwater valve.
• Having a portable generator and backup pump available.
• Ensuring downspouts are clear and the outlet is at least 3 metres from any structure.
• Removing or securing items that might float away if flows increase.
• Removing valuable items from basements or lower floors that could be subject to flooding.
• Keeping emergency phone numbers handy.
• Familiarizing yourself with your municipality’s emergency preparedness plan

Duration:

This message is in effect until April 8, 2026, or until an update has been issued.

For more information: 

Daily water levels and flows are available on the MVCA website at www.mvc.on.ca/water-levels. For more information, contact: MVCA Water Management at 613-253-0006 ext. 248 or water-management@mvc.on.ca